Hickam Housing, Hawaii 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

533
FXHW60 PHFO 260202
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
402 PM HST Fri Jul 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Trades will ease to gentle to moderate strength into the weekend
in response to an approaching weak surface trough from the east,
An increase in mainly windward and mauka rainfall is possible
along this dissipating feature late Saturday into Monday.
Trades will strengthen again around Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Trades will ease to gentle to moderate strength into the weekend
in response to an approaching weak surface trough from the east.
While this trough is progged to dissipate upon reaching the
islands, the associated moisture escorted by the trough may be
just enough to increase humidity levels and prompt a greater
chance for windward showers across Big Island and possibly Maui
County during the latter half of the weekend, and then further
north into Oahu and Kauai by early next week. Otherwise, shower
activity will be limited and primarily across windward and mauka
areas, with exception to the South Kona slopes during the
afternoon periods.

Latest model guidance continues to depict trades strengthening
back to moderate to locally breezy by Tuesday or Wednesday of
next week, however, with uncertainty persisting with regards to
tropical development south of Hawaii, confidence of the forecast
remains low. That said, the likeliness of breezy trades within
drier conditions is high.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate trades will ease slightly to gentle to moderate trades
Saturday and Sunday. A relatively stable and dry pattern will hold
through in Saturday. Expect predominately VFR conditions across
the Hawaiian Islands, however, brief periods of isolated showers
across windward and mountain areas remain possible. A weakening
trough moving from east to west may possibly increase chance of
low level clouds and precipitation and thus MVFR conditions first
for the windward areas the Big Island Saturday afternoon then for
the rest of the state by Saturday night into Sunday.

There currently are no AIRMETs in effect.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure north of the area has weakened today allowing for
moderate to locally fresh trades. The high will further weaken
this weekend, easing wind speeds to gentle to fresh. Moderate to
strong trades then return next week as high pressure restrengthens
and a tropical disturbance tracks south of the state.

Small background S swell keeps surf from going flat along S shores
through early next week. A storm force low E of New Zealand is
producing seas up to 40 feet per JSON satellite observations
indicating undersimulation of winds by the model guidance.
Confidence is therefore increased that this low will generate a
moderate long period S swell that approaches or exceeds the High
Surf Advisory threshold during its peak.

Choppy surf along E facing shores will trend down into the
weekend as winds ease locally and upstream. Flat to tiny surf
expected along N facing shores through the forecast period.

Peak afternoon high tides combined with elevated water levels are
running about half a foot higher than predicted. This trend will
continue through this afternoon and could lead to minor flooding
along the shoreline and in low lying coastal areas of Maui County
and the Big Island. Water levels then lower for the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and stable conditions will persist through Saturday, and
locally breezy trade winds will ease slightly. A shallow area of
moisture moving in from the east should bring an increase in
humidity late Saturday into Monday, further decreasing fire
weather concerns. Trade winds are expected to restrengthen Tuesday
or Wednesday, with developing dry conditions reestablishing, may
result in elevated fire weather concerns

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Foster
AVIATION...Almanza
MARINE...JVC
FIRE WEATHER...Foster